Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 310006 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 806 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT MOVES EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE REGION UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING SOUTHEAST WILL SKIRT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK DURING THE EVENING BUT THEN INCREASE IN SPEED LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW. THIS WILL INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES WILL LOWS LIKELY OCCURRING EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND THEN STEADYING OUT OR RISING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA...WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND DECREASE IN THE LATE DAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. LIGHT WINDS AND A GENERAL CLEARING WILL PERMIT LOWS TUES NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 60 AND THEN WARM ADVECTION WILL HAMPER NIGHTTIME DROP OFFS AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS HERE WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S...UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST OF CINCY AND LOWER 40S NORTH AND EAST OF COLUMBUS METRO. NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE BEYOND FCST PERIOD ON THURSDAY WITH FROPA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... YESTERDAY THERE WAS A SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A CDFNT WHICH WOULD AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF WAS LAGGING WELL BEHIND MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS. WELL...BEGINNING WITH THE 00Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUING INTO THE 12Z THE GFS/CMC HAVE SNAPPED BACK TO THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. SO NOW HAVE THURSDAY STARTING OFF DRY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS A 50 KT H8 JET WILL HELP FOCUS THE LIFT. BUMPED HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. FRONT DROPS INTO THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING THE SLOWEST/FARTHER N WITH THE FRONT BY 12Z FRIDAY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. H5 TROF WILL CAUSE A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT FRIDAY...PUSHING RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 50S IN THE NW...RANGING UP TO LOWER 60S IN THE SE. PCPN WILL END FROM W TO E FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S. A SFC TROF/WEAK CDFNT DROPS THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. KEPT ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NORTHEAST OF THE FA FOR NOW. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 50. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY DAY SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL PUSH A WRM FRNT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THIS COULD SET OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST. THESE WILL MOVE OFF WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY EARLY BUT THEN STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 09Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST AND VEER THROUGH THE DAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...

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