Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 300754 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 354 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A NARROW LINE OF VERY LIGHT PCPN IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ANY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF OUR FA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL NOSE UP INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE 00Z NAM REMAINS FARTHER NORTH THAN BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WITH THE SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ALL THREE MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF TE BETTER FORCING TO OUR NORTH...BUT THINK THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS AT LEAST WARRANT KEEPING SOME LOW END POPS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST...IT WILL EVENTUALLY DRIVE AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR EAST WITH THE FRONT...BUT GIVEN THEE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER/POSSIBLY MID 60S FAR SOUTH.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS THE HIGH SLIPS INTO THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWINGS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE PACK OF OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS LEAD BY THE GFS/CMC. THE GFS/CMC ARE SHOWING BETTER CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING SO WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE FA THURSDAY. INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS/CMC PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...STALLING IT IN KENTUCKY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW CAUSES A RIPPLE ON THE FRONT AND PULLS PCPN BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIKE IT STAYS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH...SO ONLY WENT WITH SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BUMPED HIGHS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND ONLY WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY. COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN WITH THE HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY A TROF AXIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS LIMITING TEMPERATURES IN THE NE TO MID 40S WHILE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES YESTERDAY EVENING HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA WITH A THIN BAND OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT RIGHT AROUND KDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AS THE FRONT PASSES AND COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. THERE MIGHT BE SOME MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND POOR PERFORMANCE OF BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE LEFT TAFS AT VFR. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN GUSTY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...HAINES

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