Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 010749 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 349 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECT SOME OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WORK SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF AT LEAST OUR EASTERN FA THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE ENDING AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. WITH SOME LINGERING COLDER AIR ALOFT...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL CU DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. SUPPOSE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE THE COLDEST. IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD MIX TO BETWEEN 925 AND 850 MB THIS AFTERNOON...YIELDING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITIES COULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE FAIRLY LIMITED ABOVE ABOUT 850 MB...WILL KEEP MENTION OF PCPN OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S WARMING TO THE MID 70S FOR SUNDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SET UP WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASINGLY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING FOR SEVERAL DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY RISE ABOVE NORMAL...PEAKING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (AND THE FIRST 80-DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT CVG WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE). MIN TEMPS WILL RESPOND SIMILARLY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY AND EVENTUALLY ENDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES FRONT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE IN A LATITUDINAL SENSE...WITH FLOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY REMAINING CLOSE TO ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS. A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF MODEL RUNS DOES ALLOW FOR THIS CONVERGENT ZONE TO MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK (COMPARED TO THE MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY)...SO POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SIGNS OF FORCING OVER THE ILN CWA...THE INCREASING HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL MEAN THAT A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST MAY NOT END UP AS THE BEST OPTION ANYWAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS (EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES). TO NO SURPRISE...THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH STABILITY IN THE RIDGING SOLUTION SHOWN IN GFSE SPREADS AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PROJECTIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSION OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING APPEARS VERY SLOW.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A BAND OF MVFR DECK CLOUDS HEADING SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO SOME LIGHT RAIN/ DRIZZLE HEADING SOUTH AS WELL BUT SHOULD ONLY AFFECT KCMH AND KLCK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL QUICKLY START TO PULL EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY STARTS TO FALL OFF WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS TOMORROW. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...HAINES

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