Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 300607 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 207 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... CLOSED UPR LVL LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED UPR LVL LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR OVER OUR ERN AND SRN ZONES. AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS...SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVER WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST/SOUTH. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS POISED FOR THE EAST/SOUTH DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY AND OVERALL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GAVE LOCATIONS WITH LIKELY POPS A CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. IT WILL BE COOLER GIVEN CLOUDS AND THE THREAT FOR PCPN. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...UPR LVL LOW WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST. RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE ERN/SRN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AS FRIDAY WEARS ON...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH MORE SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED S/WV ALOFT MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO THE UPPER 40S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BE DEPARTING THE CONUS ON SATURDAY MORNING...THE FIRST STEP IN A CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. BEFORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES CAN BEGIN...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENTLY SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE...THE AIR MASS (ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS) IS VERY DRY...AND THE FORCING (AS THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS) IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL. THUS...A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SET UP IN THE SOUTHEAST...WITH HEIGHTS RISING QUICKLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SET UP WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASINGLY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING FOR SEVERAL DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY RISE ABOVE NORMALS...PEAKING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (AND THE FIRST 80-DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT CVG WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE). MIN TEMPS WILL RESPOND SIMILARLY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY AND EVENTUALLY ENDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT SIGNS OF FORCING OVER THE ILN CWA...THE INCREASING HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL MEAN THAT A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST MAY NOT BE WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH NO LARGE-SCALE FEATURES TO KEY IN ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...POPS IN THE NORTH HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO 20-30 PERCENT...AND GENERALLY TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY TO A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY BY THIS EVENING. INITIAL DISTURBANCE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FORCING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY WITH IS EVIDENT FROM 00Z ILN SOUNDING. EXPECT VFR CIGS BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FEET WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING. BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A RAIN SHOWERS BUT EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR. NEXT ENHANCED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. SOME MARGINAL INSTBY DEVELOPS THIS AFTN DUE TO COLD TEMPS ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BUT DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE OMITTED THE MENTION AT THIS TIME. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING VEERING MORE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTN. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...AR

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