Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 170218
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1018 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE I-71 CORRIDOR HAS ALLOWED
RAIN TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AS THE SHOWERS MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THEY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
THE CLEARING LINE ALSO LOOKS TO TAKE ITS TIME GETTING HERE SO HAVE
RAISED MIN TEMPS BY A BIT. HAVE ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF FOG TO
THE GRIDS AS SOME SITES ARE ALREADY SHOWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
OF LESS THAN 1 DEGREE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN APPROACHING
BOUNDARY THERE IS A CONCERN THAT FOG COULD GET DENSE IN SOME
AREAS (ESP. TO THE WEST WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE CLEAR).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT BISECTING THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL TAKE
CLOUDS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. SHOWERS WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOS OFFERING REASONABLE NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FA.  AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE AND IN BRINGING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.  DUE TO
THIS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME.
INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED AND THEREFORE LEFT THUNDER MENTION OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

A LULL OR A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.  A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL WORK
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS FEATURE.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF.

A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED NORTH OF THE FA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA.  THERE IS NOT A CLEAR DISTINCT SIGNAL FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME ACROSS THE FA AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT
PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH SOME CELLS PRODUCING THUNDER HAVE FORMED THIS
EVENING AS DAY TIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE A BIT. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AS WELL. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS COMING
TO A QUICK END AT DAYTON THIS EVENING WHILE LINGERING A BIT LONGER
TOWARDS KCVG/ KLUK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
ALSO SHOW THE LOW LEVELS SATURATING QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW THIS. WITH THE
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT. DUE TO THE
MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE KEPT WITH THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. SKIES
WILL THEN START TO CLEAR AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND (PWATS FALLING TO 0.50").

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES





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