Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 261959 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 359 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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CU WILL BE AROUND THIS EVENING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LIMITED ANY FROST MENTION TO PATCHY FROST WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND THE AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY THE LOW 60S. A SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING INTO THE 30S AND HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE FA.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL OPEN UP AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT TO BECOME A LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. OVERALL THERE IS WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. BUT AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE ISSUANCE. HIGH PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO EDGE IN TODAY ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING A RETURN OF VFR CLOUDS. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH RES MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN TOWARDS CMH/ LCK IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY SHOWING A VERY THIN LAYER OF SATURATION AROUND 850 MB. DUE TO THIS HAVE LEFT MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW AS CHANCE SEEMS LOW. OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...HAINES

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