Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 191748 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 148 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT WILL PIVOT FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AN EMBEDDED S/WV WITHIN THE FLOW WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE... DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH INDIANA. A STRONG...MOIST LOW LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE IN THE DAY...THERE COULD BE A WINDOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT AND A TRAILING SFC TROF AXIS FROM THE LOW TO OUR WEST. THIS THREAT WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LOW IN TERMS OF DAMAGING WIND AND/OR LARGE HAIL GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT ANY STORMS THAT TRY TO ROTATE NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED (HIGHEST 0-1 KM HELICITY AND LOW LCLS). WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH STORMS NEAR THE TRAILING TROF AXIS WHICH COULD ALSO ROTATE BUT WILL HAVE MUCH LOWER HELICITY VALUES. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH 40 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY BEFORE THE ONSET OF RAIN (VIRGA) WHICH MAY RESULT IN EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. WILL MENTION THE WIND THREAT AND MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO. FOR TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF PCPN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING MOVE TO THE NORTH. HAVE USE A CONSENSUS MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS AND TIMING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. A DIGGING MID LEVEL TROF WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A S/WV TO OUR SOUTHWEST (FORMER CLOSED LOW THAT WAS OVER COLORADO) WILL GET KICKED TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MORE GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW/FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30 KNOTS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT WILL MOVE EAST. OUR REGION WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE DRY SLOW OF A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY. WITH DEEP MIXING AND AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 40 MPH ACRS OUR NRN ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SETUP SHOULD LATER MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WIND ADVISORY (AT LEAST 40 KNOT GUSTS) AGAIN...HAVE USED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS CONTINUING TO EXHIBIT AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO DOMINATING THE EARLY/MID EXTENDED PERIOD KEEPING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS IN ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN FCST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL COME WHEN THE SFC HIGH IN THE SE UNITED STATES MOVES OFFSHORE AND ALLOWS FOR AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AND LINGER JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT. THE UPR LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EAST ENOUGH TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON FCST AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST IN THAT THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...BRINGING IT INTO THE TN AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WHILE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY THE DEPARTING UPR LOW. HAVE COMPROMISED WITH CHANCE OF PRECIP IN ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF FCST AREA. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TAF SITES. MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NORTH BY THIS EVENING. THE POSITION OF THE LOW TO THE WEST WILL ALLOW MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD IN PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION ARE NOT CERTAIN SO WENT WITH VCSH. STRONG WINDS GUSTING WELL OVER 20 KNOTS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW TRAVELS THROUGH INDIANA TO THE GREAT LAKES. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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