Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240540 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 140 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE EXITED THE FA WITH ONLY A FEW REMAINING ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST FORMATION. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW AND THEREFORE CONTINUED THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FA FOR OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WORK OFF TO THE E ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY...WITH WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH. H5 S/W WILL EJECT OUT THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ALONG THE WRMFNT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVG THEM INTO THE TRI-SATE BY 12Z SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY...THE H5 S/W WEAKENS AS ITS GETS ABSORBED INTO THE OVERALL WLY FLOW. THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LIMITS THE ABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TO PULL UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME SFC BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF CHC THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR SATURDAY. OVERALL KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS IN THE NE. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CHANCE OF LINGERING PCPN SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS FROM THE FILLING S/W. THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND HIGHEST WITH THE QPF. IT LOOKS A LITTLE OVER DONE SO WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE WHICH ENDS PCPN FROM THE NW...WITH SOME LINGERING PCPN IN THE SE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCPN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN CENTRAL OHIO TO THE MID 40S IN THE TRI-STATE. ON SATURDAY THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE UPPER 40S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THEY WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 50S IN NRN KY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER LIGHT SHOWERS EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. COOL AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALL SITES WILL SEE OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. CVG COULD SEE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BY THE END OF ITS 30 HOUR TAF...THOUGH VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. WINDS WILL STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS WHILE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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