Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270113 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 913 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN...CU HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME DISSIPATING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND HAS TRANSITIONED INTO MORE OF A SCT-BKN SC FIELD. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT CLOUD FORECAST AS THERE ARE SOME CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR EAST ATTM. THERE IS A SCT AXIS OF HIGH SC/LOW AC ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING AND THINK THIS MAY CONTINUE TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT AS IT WORKS SOUTH INTO OUR AREA GIVEN THE INITIAL TROUGH AXIS AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD THEN APPROACH/MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. AS A RESULT...WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR SOME CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH PRIMARILY JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS OUR WEST. AS WE BEGIN TO DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY IN AREAS WITH CLEAR SKIES. TOYED WITH A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST...BUT WITH THE UNCERTAIN CLOUD FORECAST...WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FROST WORDING MOST AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY THE LOW 60S. A SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING INTO THE 30S AND HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE FA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL OPEN UP AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT TO BECOME A LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. OVERALL THERE IS WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. BUT AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN AREA OF CU/SC IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. IN LOW LEVEL CAA...SOME OF THIS MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DISSIPATE THEN WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED SO WILL HANG ON TO SOME SCT VFR SC INTO TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BKN VFR SC DECK TO PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY AT KCMH/KLUK. THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH THOUGH TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL

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