Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 010526 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 126 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SMALL AREA OF CLOUDS NORTH OF COLUMBUS WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MADE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST COAST BY WED EVENING. A RETURN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ON WED WITH ONLY SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT ONE CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE UPPER 60S SW. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE WED NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NE TO THE UPPER 40S SW. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND MOVE INTO OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT. NRN STREAM ENERGY TO PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH SRN STREAM TROF HOLDING THE FRONT BACK OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS KEEPS ILN/S FA IN A MOIST SWRLY FLOW. 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT. FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR 2 TO 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LKLY ACRS THE WEST THURSDAY AFTN AND CATEGORICAL THURSDAY NIGHT. MARGINAL INSTBY DEVELOPS THU AFTN/THU EVE. WITH THE FRONT STILL TO OUR WEST AND MARGINAL INSTBY THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED. DUE TO THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN THE HWO PRODUCT. IN STRONG WAA PATTERN TEMPERATURES TO BE 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY FROM SW TO NE PORTIONS OF THE FA. WITH THIS BOUNDARY IN PLACE EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THIS RAIN IN ADDITION WITH RAINFALL BEFORE THIS TIME MAY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY PRIMARILY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA COLDER AIR WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. BRING THUNDER MENTION INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THAT TIME. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY TODAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW CU DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. ANY CU SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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