Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 252105 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 505 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING AND ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM. WARM FRONT IS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. NORTH OF THIS FEATURE TEMPERATURES HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED TO RISE AND HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED WITH SOME OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY. NOT EXPECTING A BIG DROP IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S WHERE THERE WILL BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND WITH COOLER AIR WORKING INTO THAT AREA. HAVE TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE BRIEFLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THUNDER HAS GENERALLY BEEN LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WHERE THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE CLEARING AND RIGHT BY THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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WITH CAA ONLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR SUNDAY. ALSO WITH CAA AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DUE TO THIS WENT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT FROST MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY TO EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH THE FORECAST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN. STRONGEST SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. BEYOND THAT THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH READINGS GETTING ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CIGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO DROP ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TOWARDS THE SOUTH. THE NEW NAM MODEL RUN ALONG WITH THE HIGH RES HRRR HAVE SHOWED THE BOUNDARY MOSTLY STAYING TO THE SOUTH. KDAY/ KCMH/ KLCK: THESE TERMINALS TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL THE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. KDAY WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH THE SREF SHOWING IFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY STAYING TOWARDS THE SOUTH. KCMH AND KLCK SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO STAY MOSTLY VFR WITH TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS. SKIES WILL THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVING CIGS. KILN: PRECIP CURRENTLY OCCURRING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM KILN THIS EVENING WITH CIGS FALLING INTO IFR. CLEARING CONDITIONS AND IMPROVING CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. KCVG/ KLUK: RAIN CURRENTLY ONGOING AT THESE TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME STORMS COULD HAVE THUNDER. CIGS WILL THEN START TO IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. OUTLOOK...BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...HAINES

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