Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 032026 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 426 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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DAYTIME CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING IN FAVOR OF GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS WILL SPILLING INTO NORTHWESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE LOW AND MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE MAIN FORCING WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE REGION IN NORTHEAST CANADA AND MOVING AWAY. THE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR ON SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FRONT INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD POP ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER IN THE IMMEDIATE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HERE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUD COVER THAT SHOULD BE MORE DENSE AND IN GREATER EXTENT IN NORTHERN CWA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD A BIT EACH DAY AS THEY RISE TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...HIGHEST ALONG OHIO RIVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER TO THE NORTH. DID NOT MAKE ANY SWEEPING CHANGES TO TEMPS IN THE FORECAST AS BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE OF THE MAV AND THE MET BLENDED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST YIELDED MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FA. ON WEDNESDAY THE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD. THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP. BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY. WITH THE RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS. OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MID CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER WILL BE MOST PREVALENT DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. CU WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY BELIEVE GUSTS WILL BE MINIMAL AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. DID ADD IN WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ADDED IN SOME MVFR FOG TO KLUK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT THAT IT MIGHT BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS WOULD BE SHORT LIVED. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...NOVAK

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