Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 311957 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 357 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WITH QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY EVENING. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER WESTERN PA TO TRACK SE WITH WESTWARD TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING S THRU THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND DRY CONDITIONS HAS LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING ACRS THE SCIOTO VALLEY THRU 8 PM WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN WINDS AND CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S FAR NE TO THE UPPER 30S SW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST COAST BY WED EVENING. A RETURN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ON WED WITH ONLY SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT ONE CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE UPPER 60S SW. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE WED NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NE TO THE UPPER 40S SW. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND MOVE INTO OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT. NRN STREAM ENERGY TO PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH SRN STREAM TROF HOLDING THE FRONT BACK OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS KEEPS ILN/S FA IN A MOIST SWRLY FLOW. 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT. FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR 2 TO 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LKLY ACRS THE WEST THURSDAY AFTN AND CATEGORICAL THURSDAY NIGHT. MARGINAL INSTBY DEVELOPS THU AFTN/THU EVE. WITH THE FRONT STILL TO OUR WEST AND MARGINAL INSTBY THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED. DUE TO THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN THE HWO PRODUCT. IN STRONG WAA PATTERN TEMPERATURES TO BE 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY FROM SW TO NE PORTIONS OF THE FA. WITH THIS BOUNDARY IN PLACE EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THIS RAIN IN ADDITION WITH RAINFALL BEFORE THIS TIME MAY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY PRIMARILY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA COLDER AIR WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. BRING THUNDER MENTION INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THAT TIME.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR WILL IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING CLIPPER. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...BUT A BAND OF CLOUDS BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ARE MOVING SOUTH TO TAF SITES. NORTHERN TAF SITES CMH LCK DAY AND ILN SHOULD SEE THE MOST CLOUD COVER WHILE OTHER SITES SHOULD SEE LESS AS THEY ARE FARTHER FROM THE SOURCE REGION WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BEFORE THEY REACH THE SOUTHERN SITES. EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN VFR BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS THAT MAY DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF MODEL PROJECTIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG UNTIL AROUND 00Z AFTER WHICH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ064-065- 073-074-081-082-088. KY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ099-100. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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