Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 051023 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 623 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND WILL SLOWLY START TO WASH OUT AND PULL NORTHWARDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME... WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO CROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING WHILE THE LINE CONTINUES TO PULL BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS LINE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS DAWN ALONG WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE BEST AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE IN NORTHERN OHIO BUT SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CMH SHOW CAPE VALUES ~600 WITH PWATS UP AROUND 1.24". GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE. HIGH RES NCAR ENSEMBLE SUITE ALSO SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS CINCINNATI STILL LOOK LOW FOR TUESDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO EJECT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE AREA. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT THE AREA WILL BE RAIN FREE WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND PWATS DON`T COMPLETELY DROP OFF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY WITH ALSO A HINT OF UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. EITHER WAY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FORM WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... IN THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. ON THURSDAY THE AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WAS OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA BEGINS TO RETROGRADE. THE LOW WILL THEN RETROGRADE UNDERNEATH THE WEAK RIDGE FORMING A TEMPORARY REX BLOCK WHICH WILL HELP TO BLOCK THE FLOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO DIVE SOUTH THURSDAY OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES QUICKLY WRAPPING UP INTO A LOW. THIS MEANS A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500 FOR THE AREA OPENING THE WAY FOR POCKETS OF PVA TO TRAVERSE THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO RISE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND APPROACH 1.70" SUNDAY EVENING (1 - 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY EARLIER DUE TO THE LIFT AND MOISTURE. ON SUNDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE EURO BRINGS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SOUTHWARDS SUNDAY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES PICKING UP THE LOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE LOW THEN PUSHES EAST ACROSS OHIO TUESDAY PULLING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE ENERGY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES NEVER MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DISLODGE THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND SHEARS OUT. THIS SOLUTION KEEPS THE AREA WARM AND HUMID. THE LATEST CANADIAN APPEARS TO RESEMBLE THE ECMWF. HAVE KEPT GRIDS TRENDING TOWARDS THE CMC AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR ARE CONTINUING TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF REDEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT IT APPEARS THIS WILL REMAIN WEST/NORTH OF KDAY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OHIO. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR...WITH ABOUT HALF OF THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGESTING IT WILL BE AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL OHIO. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...THINK THE BEST BET AT THIS POINT IS TO ALLOW FOR A VCTS AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF AND/OR SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...HAINES AVIATION...JGL

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