Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 311040 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 640 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW MORNING ALLOWING FOR NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS TOMORROW. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF WARM UP BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN HAVE REMAINED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. FORECAST LOOKS DRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT SKIRTED PAST THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER QUEBEC. WEDNESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD AS OHIO FALLS UNDER AGEOSTROPHIC CONVERGENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PULL EAST AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE LOW WILL BE IN MANITOBA ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. ON THURSDAY WIDESPREAD WAA AND POCKETS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN FOR THE CHANCE OF RAIN. PWATS ALSO APPROACH 1.10" ON THE GFS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME THURSDAY THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. THE GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND CORRESPONDING RAINFALL TOTALS. THE EURO AGAIN IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE FRONT NOT PUSHING IT INTO THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE FRONT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE NAM AND CMC SEEM TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AND HAS THE FRONT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND THE GFS. ALONG THE FRONT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY DUE TO GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE... POWERFUL LLJ... AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A RRQ. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THUNDER ALSO LOOKS LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS SHOW PARCELS BEING ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE EL WITH LITTLE CIN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PCPN WILL END FROM W TO E FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S. A SFC TROF/WEAK CDFNT DROPS THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. KEPT ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NORTHEAST OF THE FA FOR NOW. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 50. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY DAY SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL PUSH A WRM FRNT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THIS COULD SET OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE AND ARE BECOMING GUSTY THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED THOUGH SO THINK NET RESULT WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME LOWER VFR SC/CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO DECREASING WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...JGL

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