Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230159 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 959 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP COOL AIR THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON BRISK WINDS. CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND SOME THREAT OF FROST TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MODERATION OCCURS AND WINDS TURN EASTERLY. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL ON SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. WINDS HAVE DECREASED QUITE A BIT WHICH WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FROST FORMATION OVERNIGHT. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT. KEPT FROST FREEZE HEADLINES IN PLACE. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A REPEAT OF WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT DIFFERENT IN TWO AREAS: 1) WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...LIKELY GUSTS TOWARD 25 OR 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON 2) MORE SUNSHINE IN OUR SOUTH/WEST IN COMPARISON TO TODAY. STILL EXPECT A DIURNALLY FORCED EXPLOSION OF STRATOCUMULUS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL OHIO WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES...BUT MORE AREAS WILL SEE MORE SUN TOMORROW VS. WHAT THEY SAW TODAY. FOR TEMPS...MIXED 925MB TEMPS OFF THE NAM TO THE SURFACE AND BLENDED THOSE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO CAPTURE TRENDS AND CONTINUITY. MUCH BETTER SHOT AT FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT OVER ALL THE AREA AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. SEEMS A BETTER CHANCE TO FULLY DECOUPLE THE BOUNDARY LAYER THUS WITH AMBIENT LOW-MOISTURE AIR MASS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...A GOOD AMOUNT OF FROST IS POSSIBLE...AND SOME AREAS /ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70 AND TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS/ COULD SEE A FREEZE. HEAVILY DEBATED A FREEZE WATCH BUT IN THE END JUST WASN/T CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THAT SCENARIO TO DO SO. FRIDAY BRINGS A QUIET DAY WITH DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. THIS ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THE AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OFF TO THE SOUTH/WEST. A WARMER DAY BUT ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WON/T BE OVERLY STRONG. PLUS THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL TEMPER WARMING A BIT. MORE ROBUST FORCING/WARM ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY ATOP A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. ENOUGH LIFT/INSTBY FOR THREAT FOR SHOWERS/FEW STORMS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN TRI-STATE AND NRN KY WHERE BETTER PUSH OF THETA-E RESIDES. MAINTAINED THE RAIN CHANCES THAT WERE INHERITED IN THIS TIME RANGE. KEPT MINIMUM TEMPS MUCH WARMER THAN PVS NIGHTS DUE TO THICKENING CLOUDS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT COOL AND GRADUALLY WARMS UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SATURDAY WILL START OUT WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW TRACKING E THROUGH KY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE SFC LOW APPEARS TO BE IN STEP WITH A DECENT UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL GET ENTRAINED IN THE MEAN FLOW AS IT BATTLES AGAINST A WEAK RIDGE AND THEY CANCEL EACH OTHER OUT. A LARGE LOW SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AT H5 WILL KEEP A COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY /AT LEAST IN UPPER LEVELS/ FORECAST IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH A SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES COOL AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OFF OF THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED RIDGE IN OHIO VALLEY HOLDS SWAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS OCCURS AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES A WAY SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE GULF STATES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN IN OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TOPPED BY A GENERALLY MUDDLED YET TROUGH-Y PATTERN AT H5. REMOVED TUESDAY SHOWERS AND SAW SOME INDICATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER WED AND INTO THURS WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY TO START WITH IN THE EAST. KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY WARMED UP HIGHS AND OPENED A LARGER DIURNAL WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH TOO COOL...BUT IN THIS PATTERN THEY GENERALLY CU UP NICELY AND LIMIT SUCH WARMUPS TO THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...FLATTENING THEM OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO DECREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES SO HAVE WIND GUSTS IN FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY GO CLEAR OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER AROUND KCMH AND KLCK. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS WELL. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034- 035-042>045-051-052-060. FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ046- 053>056-061>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058- 059-066. FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ073>075- 080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BINAU NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...BINAU LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...NOVAK

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