Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 020017 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 817 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN RESIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... EVENING UPDATE TRENDED OBSERVED VALUES OF CURRENT CONDITIONS WITH THE STILL VALID EARLIER FORECAST. LOWERED CLOUD COVER TO NOTHING OVER NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF CWA FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOCATED TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPILL SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL S/WV. USED A CONSENSUS ALL BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A WEAK S/WV ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH JUST A MIX OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH DECENT MIXING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S. UPR LVL FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN/BECOMES ZONAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRONT TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HEIGHTS WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING...AS THE FLOW ALOFT FINISHES THIS TRANSITION BY SETTING UP IN A GENERALLY ZONAL PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WITH ONE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE OTHER OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY (AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY) FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY...AS THE NORTHERN HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ONLY VARIABLE PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK IS IN THE POSITIONING OF A SURFACE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL INITIALLY STRETCH SW-TO-NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...BUT WILL PIVOT INTO AN W-TO-E DIRECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS TODAY...A STRONGER DEPICTION OF THE NORTHERN SURFACE HIGH WILL FORCE THIS FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. BASED ON THIS CHANGE IN THE FORECAST...POPS WERE INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTHERN CWA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE DIURNAL CYCLE FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. CONVECTION MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...BUT THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA (AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF) WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY RISE ABOVE NORMALS...PEAKING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S ON MONDAY AND NEAR 80 ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL RESPOND SIMILARLY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY AND EVENTUALLY ENDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH RIDGING IN THE EAST AND TROUGHING IN THE WEST. TO NO SURPRISE...THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH STABILITY IN THE RIDGING SOLUTION SHOWN IN GFSE SPREADS AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PROJECTIONS. THE BIGGER ISSUES FOR HOW THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST WILL BE BASED ON THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH BUILDING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE WAY THIS OCCURS WILL FURTHER BE COMPLICATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL-LOOKING LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ULTIMATELY...NONE OF THE MODELS ARE PARTICULARLY FAST IN MOVING THE RIDGE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH TROUGHING (AND CHANCES FOR CONVECTION) REMAINING GENERALLY WEST OF THE AREA. THE INCREASING HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL MEAN THAT A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST MAY NOT END UP AS THE BEST OPTION...BUT SINCE THIS IS OUT ON DAY 6-7 AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING SEEMS TO BE ABSENT...A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED. THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED WARMING DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SHOW ANOTHER SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND NORTHERLY WINDS 10KT OR SO WILL DECREASE IN SHORT ORDER AS WELL. TOWARDS DAYBREAK THE WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AND THERE COULD BE SOME CIRRUS SPILLING THROUGH THE REGION. DAYTIME FAIR WX CU WILL ALSO POP AGAIN BUT COULD BE A BIT MORE MUTED UNDER WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AND UNDER ANY CI SHIELD THAT COULD BE PRESENT. CLOUD COVER WILL DIE OUT BEFORE 0Z AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. KEPT THE PREDAWN DROP IN VSBYS WITH GROUND FOG AT KILN AND KLUK. SMOKE PLUME FROM COLUMBUS FIRE WILL NOT AFFECT AVIATION BUT SHOWS UP NICELY ON RADAR AND COULD EVEN BE DISCERNED BY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...FRANKS

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