Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 042340 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 740 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND STALL OUT IN NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AREA OF SHOWERS CROSSING EAST THROUGH CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE WITH MANY AREAS ONLY GETTING ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND AND SOME EVEN LESS THAN THAT. REMOVED THUNDER FROM POPS THAT WERE LESS THAN 25% AND ONLY PUT ISOLD THUNDER IN WHERE IT EXCEEDED THIS VALUE. WEAK SURFACE FORCING WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE IS TOPPED BY NEARLY ZONAL WLY FLOW AND WEAK VORTICITY PERTURBATIONS IN THE FIELD. THIS DOES NOT TYPICALLY SUPPORT A THUNDER FORECAST BUT AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEY MAY POP. MODELS DECREASE ACTIVITY SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS PASS TO THE EAST. HAVE SHIFTED THE FOCUS NORTHWARD BUT STILL FEEL THAT CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE PEELED BACK ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE SOME MORE THIS EVENING. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY UNCHANGED AND BLENDED WELL WITH LATEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 60. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESUME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. A LARGER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL OCCUR HERE AS RAIN COOLED AIR /OR AT LEAST CLOUDY SKIES/ WILL NOT PERMIT READINGS TO TOP OUT OF THE MID 70S WHILE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AND HIGHS WILL RISE A BIT MORE IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING 80 DEGREES IN SPOTS. WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...THEY REMAIN NONZERO AS THE SURFACE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD MIX TO SPARK SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING IS NO LONGER IN PLAY...ANY PRECIP WILL GO THE WAYSIDE OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... H5 RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST OF THE EXTENDED MODELS...DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURSDAY UNDER THE RIDGE. THIS COULD BE RELATED TO HOW IT IS HANDLING THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THE DRIFTS NW. THE GFS BRINGS IN ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SOME OF ITS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE GETTING PULLED INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. CARRIED A 20 POP IN SE INDIANA/NRN KY PER THE ECMWF TO COVER ANY ROUGE CONVECTION THAT MIGHT TRY AND POP. ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP DIES DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS REDEVELOPS PCPN FRIDAY. IT IS THE FARTHEST W WITH THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...WHICH HELPS FUEL ITS CONVECTION. PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF. BY THE WEEKEND A CDFNT SLOW APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOCATIONS IN THE W/NW WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ENTIRE FA TO HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THE ORIGINAL FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE REGION AS H5 TROF DIGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. A STRONGER N-S ORIENTED CDFNT WILL WORK TO TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY...KEEPING SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN ON MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD ONLY MAKE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING...EXPECT KDAY TO KCMH/KLCK TO BE IMPACTED. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO PERSISTENT SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS 12Z. COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION. FURTHER SOUTH THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL OCCUR AND IF THEY DO WHETHER THEY WOULD IMPACT KCVG/KLUK/KILN. STILL ENOUGH OF A POSSIBILITY TO CONTINUE WITH VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...

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