Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 162018 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 418 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A CONVERGENT REGION THAT IS DESTABILIZING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SOME THUNDER TO OCCUR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO THE REGION. FORECAST LOWS ARE NEAR WARMER MOS NUMBERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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A COLD FRONT BISECTING THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL TAKE CLOUDS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. SHOWERS WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOS OFFERING REASONABLE NUMBERS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND IN BRINGING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THIS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED AND THEREFORE LEFT THUNDER MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A LULL OR A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS FEATURE. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED NORTH OF THE FA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA. THERE IS NOT A CLEAR DISTINCT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME ACROSS THE FA AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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IN THE AREA OF BETTER CLEARING OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WE ARE BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE. SOME OF THIS SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO AT LEAST SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HI RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THAT AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THIS COULD AFFECT AT LEAST THE WESTERN TAF SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD THOUGH SO WILL TRY TO COVER THE THREAT WITH A VCTS. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THEN SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO OUR AREA. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR CIGS/VSBY TO DROP INTO IFR CATEGORY LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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