Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 021753 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 153 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SLOWLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL WORK BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL ONCE AGAIN MIX TO AROUND 750 MB OR SO. AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY...HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE ONLY VARIABLE PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK IS IN THE POSITIONING OF A SURFACE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL INITIALLY STRETCH SW-TO-NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...BUT WILL PIVOT INTO AN W-TO-E DIRECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS TODAY...A STRONGER DEPICTION OF THE NORTHERN SURFACE HIGH WILL FORCE THIS FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. BASED ON THIS CHANGE IN THE FORECAST...POPS WERE INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTHERN CWA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE DIURNAL CYCLE FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. CONVECTION MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...BUT THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA (AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF) WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY RISE ABOVE NORMALS...PEAKING OUT NEAR 80 ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL RESPOND SIMILARLY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY AND EVENTUALLY ENDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH RIDGING IN THE EAST AND TROUGHING IN THE WEST. TO NO SURPRISE...THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH STABILITY IN THE RIDGING SOLUTION SHOWN IN GFSE SPREADS AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PROJECTIONS. THE BIGGER ISSUES FOR HOW THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST WILL BE BASED ON THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH BUILDING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE WAY THIS OCCURS WILL FURTHER BE COMPLICATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL-LOOKING LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ULTIMATELY...NONE OF THE MODELS ARE PARTICULARLY FAST IN MOVING THE RIDGE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH TROUGHING (AND CHANCES FOR CONVECTION) REMAINING GENERALLY WEST OF THE AREA. THE INCREASING HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL MEAN THAT A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST MAY NOT END UP AS THE BEST OPTION...BUT SINCE THIS IS OUT ON DAY 6-7 AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING SEEMS TO BE ABSENT...A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED. THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED WARMING DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SHOW ANOTHER SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THIS TIME. EXPECT SOME SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP TODAY HOWEVER DUE TO THE LIGHT AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...NOVAK

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