Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241055 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 655 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY...PROVIDING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND PLACING THE OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WAS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE FREEZE WARNING. AFTER A COLD AND SUNNY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HIGH/MID LEVEL WAA CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES WARMER THAN YDA WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... MID LEVEL LOW TO EJECT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACRS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. CLOUDS TO THICKEN TONIGHT WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE. WILL ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP ACRS THE SW TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY IN THE REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT. INSTBY IS LACKING SO WILL LIMIT MENTION TO SHOWERS INITIALLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SW. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NE TO THE UPPER 40S SW. THE MID LEVEL LOW TO OPEN UP AND TRACK ACRS THE MID MS VLY SATURDAY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SAT WITH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 45-50 LLJ OVERSPREADING ILN/S FA. MARGINAL INSTBY TO DEVELOP ACRS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH CHC OF THUNDER SOUTH AND LKLY POPS NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S FAR SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODELS SIMILAR WITH SFC LOW TRACKING EAST ACRS KY SATURDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH LATE SAT AFTN/SAT EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES ESE PCPN WILL END FROM NW TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO BUILD SE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. AS DRIER AIR AND CLEARING DEVELOPS COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID 40S SE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM THE NW. HIGHS SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS HAD. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH AND TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST WILL HELP TO KEEP US UNDER A REINFORCING DRY YET COOL AIRMASS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY FROM SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THAT ANY SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONGER WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AROUND 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALL SITES WILL SEE OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. CVG AND LUK SHOULD SEE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY AROUND 08Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT CVG AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WHILE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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