Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 220235 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1035 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. S/W ENERGY ROTATING SE AROUND THIS LOW WILL DROP THRU OHIO OVERNIGHT. SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FORCING LEADING TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACRS THE SOUTH WHERE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE COME TOGETHER. PREVIOUS FCST HAD GOOD HANDLE ON POPS DISTRIBUTION AND THUS HAVE KEPT...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACRS THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACRS THE REGION WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE UPPER 40S SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS TUESDAY. EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA. WITH COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECENT CLOUD COVER FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT LATE IN THE DAY LEAVING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE IN THE EVENING HOWEVER EXPECT THE WINDS TO STAY UP A LITTLE BIT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO LIMIT SOME OF THE FROST HOWEVER EXPECT MORE FROST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. ALTHOUGH THE GREATER FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FREEZE WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO EXPECTED TEMPERATURES BEING SO CLOSE TO FREEZING. ADDED PATCHY FROST MENTION IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE HWO AND ADDED FREEZE MENTION IN THE HWO FOR ACROSS THE NORTH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COOL PATTERN IS INDICATED BY MODELS SHOWING A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. LOW PRESSURE AND A RATHER LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE IS INDICATED FOR SATURDAY...PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS. ANOTHER DRY PERIOD IS SHAPING UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE. SHOWERS MAY RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS EVENT. TEMPERATURES MAY STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FROST MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MAY BE ATTAINED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THRU THE NRN GREAT LAKES THRU THE TAF FCST PERIOD. S/W ENERGY WILL ROTATE SE AROUND THIS LOW THRU OHIO OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SE THRU THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED. AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 50 KT LLJ DEVELOPS WHICH AIDS FORCING AND SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LATE TONIGHT.SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE OBSERVED. AFTER SHOWERS END VFR LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO WED AFTN. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME AND BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK/AR SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...AR

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