Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 300802 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 402 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN WILL DROP SOUTH TODAY...REACHING CINCINNATI THIS EVENING. SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE RATHER MOIST CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL AFFECT THE ILN AREA. IT APPEARS EASTERN LOCATIONS MAY SEE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS SINCE DAYTIME HEATING IN THAT PART OF THE AREA WILL COINCIDE WITH FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. MARGINAL INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP AMOUNTS OF PERHAPS A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE...AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN A REGIME OF WEAK WIND FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S BY COLD ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND PRECIP. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. WITH HEIGHT RISES SIGNALING A WEAKENING TREND FOR THE UPPER LOW...OUR AREA WILL SEE A DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE AND FORCING WANE. HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN TAKE OVER THE WEATHER PATTERN. DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY AND WILL STAY OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WARMER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL REPLACE THE COOLER AIRMASS OF THE UPPER LOW...BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO THE NORMAL MID AND UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY...THEN UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES TO BE CLOSE TO 70 ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SET UP IN THE SOUTHEAST...WITH HEIGHTS RISING QUICKLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SET UP WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASINGLY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING FOR SEVERAL DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY RISE ABOVE NORMALS...PEAKING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (AND THE FIRST 80-DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT CVG WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE). MIN TEMPS WILL RESPOND SIMILARLY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY AND EVENTUALLY ENDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT SIGNS OF FORCING OVER THE ILN CWA...THE INCREASING HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL MEAN THAT A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST MAY NOT BE WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH NO LARGE-SCALE FEATURES TO KEY IN ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...POPS IN THE NORTH HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO 20-30 PERCENT...AND GENERALLY TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY TO A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY BY THIS EVENING. INITIAL DISTURBANCE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FORCING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY WITH IS EVIDENT FROM 00Z ILN SOUNDING. EXPECT VFR CIGS BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FEET WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING. BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A RAIN SHOWERS BUT EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR. NEXT ENHANCED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. SOME MARGINAL INSTBY DEVELOPS THIS AFTN DUE TO COLD TEMPS ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BUT DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE OMITTED THE MENTION AT THIS TIME. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING VEERING MORE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTN. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...AR

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