Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 181039
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
639 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS
MORNING. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

FOR TODAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH FOLLOWED BY MORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY
SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S. A FEW 80S MAY OCCUR IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE ON
THE STRONGER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CONUS AND
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL MOVE FROM THE COLORADO REGION
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE CLOSED
CIRCULATION MOVING OUT OF COLORADO WILL HELP EJECT MID LEVEL
ENERGY NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MS VLY TO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEVELOPING MOIST...LOW
LEVEL JET/WARM FRONT WHICH WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD PCPN INTO OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY. PCPN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AS FIRST.
HOWEVER...AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY
OCCUR AS INSTABILITY INCREASES A TAD. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND A DEEPENING LOW TO OUR WEST.
BEST CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH...ESPECIALLY BEFORE PCPN BEGINS AS SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING
MAY HELP TRANSFER STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL
WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 35 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACRS THE NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE
SRN PLAINS WILL GET EJECTED/ABSORBED WITHIN LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
EMBEDDED MID LVL ENERGY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY AS THEY MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION. WE SHOULD
SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN PCPN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
TO OUR WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. OUR AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE DRY
SECTOR OF THIS LARGE SCALE FEATURE DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. ANY LINGERING PCPN ACRS THE FAR EAST WILL MOVE
AWAY EARLY MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. ON TUESDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. WITH DEEP MIXING...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY DAY
WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTH. WIND GUSTY MAY
RANGE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GENERALLY USED A MOS CONSENSUS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA ON MONDAY.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE AND ALONG THIS FEATURE.  SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WHERE THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH TO THE EAST BY MONDAY EVENING.  COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITUATED NORTH OF THE FA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.  DISTURBANCES WILL WORK AROUND THIS
LOW.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE FA
HOWEVER THERE IS A BETTER SIGNAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY AND HAVE INTRODUCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE ENTIRE FA ON WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VERY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
BEGINS TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY (AROUND 10 KNOTS) DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A
FEW CUMULUS AND OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF CIRRUS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A LITTLE MORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT TURN TO THE EAST. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS





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