Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 180200 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1000 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS. CIRRUS HAS SPREAD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BUT IT STILL LOOKS TO BE A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HAVE ONLY UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CIRRUS MOVING IN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... CENTER OF HIGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE TRI-STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY MAY WORK IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THESE SHOWERS. SO AS ACTIVITY DECREASES IN COVERAGE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANCE STARTS TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOS AVERAGE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY COULD BE TRICKY WITH WARMING POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN CENTRAL OHIO BEFORE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. AND THEN THE SOUTHWEST COULD RALLY LATE AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE AND ALONG THIS FEATURE. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TO THE EAST BY MONDAY EVENING. COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITUATED NORTH OF THE FA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. DISTURBANCES WILL WORK AROUND THIS LOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE FA HOWEVER THERE IS A BETTER SIGNAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY AND HAVE INTRODUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE ENTIRE FA ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETS IN. THE NAM GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG WHILE THE GFS IS NOT SHOWING MUCH. TOOK A LOOK AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 30S AND DON`T EXPECT LOWS TO GET ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THAT TONIGHT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT NO FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ONLY DEW. THE CROSSOVER TEMP AT CVG AND LUK IS IN THE UPPER 40S THOUGH. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 40S. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE LEFT THE TEMPO IN FOR LUK. LOOKING AT THE VERTICAL CHANGE OF HUMIDITY IT SUPPORTS LITTLE TO NO FOG DEVELOPMENT ON THE GFS WHILE BEING NEUTRAL ON THE NAM. OVERALL AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH. SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DRIFT TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CLOUDS. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE ISSUANCE. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HAINES

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