Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 260243 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1043 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE WATCH EXPIRES AT 11 PM...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED IT FOR AN HOUR TO CAPTURE THE REMAINING CONVECTION AS IT EXITS THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT HAS GONE AWAY...STILL A THREAT FOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS TO CONTAIN SOME DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE SOME LARGER HAIL. IN FACT...JUST A LITTLE BIT AGO...A REPORT OF A 61 MPH WIND GUST WAS RECEIVED OUT OF RUSSELL COUNTY. THUS...STILL WATCHING THE WIND THREAT CLOSELY. SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z. THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION... ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROLL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. WILL TRY TO PIN DOWN AN HOUR WHEN THE BEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN THE TAFS. THE WIND THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS MAY GO NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AND STAY THERE WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND WE MAY SEE VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ON THIS POTENTIAL AS THE CLOUDS COULD BE FAIRLY STUBBORN THIS TIME AROUND. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...KAS

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