Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 012320 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 720 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 IR SAT INDICATES SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THESE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS DISTURBANCE WEST OF THE REGION SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW MORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ALSO OPTED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/DEWPOINT TO MATCH BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. STILL SEEING FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS EARLY EVENING HOUR WITH MOST SITES IN THE LOWER 20S TO TEENS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO RUN THE MENTION OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES AND WILDFIRE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AT THIS POINT.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVES INTO KENTUCKY AND THE OH VALLEY REGION. THE DRY AIR OVER THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED RH VALUES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN SOME PLACES. THESE VALUES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...DUE TO THE SLOW EXIT...EAST KENTUCKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH INCREASE IN LL FLOW MOVING FROM SW TO THE NE...WILL EXPECT TO SEE A GREAT DISPARITY IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORE OPEN VALLEYS IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY. SHORT TERM MODELS BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREA BY 12Z OR SHORTLY AFTER WITH PROFILES BECOMING SATURATED DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THROUGH DUE TO THE DRY PATTERN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...WENT WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SEEM TO KEEP THE MAIN AXIS FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE THURSDAY TIME PERIOD BUT WILL STILL BRING GOOD CHANCE POPS INTO THE AREA WITH SOME DECENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HWO FOR THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE LOST IN DAYTIME HEATING WILL DETRACT FROM THE INSTABILITY BUT STILL WILL EXPECT A FEW STRONG STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS WILL ALSO BE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AND HAVE RAMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON EXACTLY WHERE THE MAIN AXIS OF PRECIP WILL SET UP WILL BE IN QUESTION BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH A CONSENSUS IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND NOSING NORTHEAST INTO THE BLUEGRASS AREA. WILL KEEP MENTION OF ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES BOTH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AT 12Z FRIDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR NW...WITH THE FRONT NOT PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY...WITH LI/S DOWN TO -2 OR -3. A FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KNOTS AT OR BELOW 85H ALSO LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. SPC HAS PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT TO MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FOR FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE NORTH WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE BETTER. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE START OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DECREASING MODEL AGREEMENT. HOWEVER FOLLOWING THE STANDARD MODEL BLENDED APPROACH YIELDS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP LATER TONIGHT AS MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM. SOME SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY SME AND LOZ TO DROP TO MVFR VISIBILITY IN RAIN. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT SHOULD HOLD OFF TILL AFTER 18Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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