Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 251956 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 356 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z. THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION... ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT IFR AND BELOW CIGS AND VIS REMAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY NUDGES NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW FIELD MINS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THUNDER NEAR EACH STATION THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARD...LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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