Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 060749 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 349 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MODIFICATION THAT WILL AFFECT THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FOR TODAY...EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME AS YESTERDAY...WHERE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WHILE HIGH SUN ANGLES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID AND EVEN POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 80S. BEST MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PINNED OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE STATE...SO A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON HERE ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WENT AHEAD AND CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF ISL THUNDER IN FORECAST. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH IN THE SAME AS WELL...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AND OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. BY THURSDAY...HOWEVER...A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN FEEDING MOISTURE INLAND. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER KY...E TO SE WINDS WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE OFF OF THE COAST TO ALLOW FOR A DEFINITE UPTICK IN HUMIDITY AND AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER. IT WILL ALSO MEAN A BETTER SHOT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE AS PRECIP. JUST LOOKING AT THE LATEST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS...HI RES PLAN VIEW MODELS...AND THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW...STILL EXPECT MOST PRECIP WILL STAY OVER FAR SE KY...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS /THE GFS FOR INSTANCE/...ARE SPREADING WHAT SEEMS TO BE AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. AS SUCH...TRIED TO MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES BY FOCUSING MAIN AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR SE CWA IN THE FORECAST...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS MAKING IT WESTWARD DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF MID AFTERNOON. ONCE THE SUN BEGINS TO FADE...EXPECT ANY TRIGGERING FEATURES WILL QUICKLY FADE AND ANY ONGOING RAIN/TSRA OR EVEN BKN CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK APART. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LARGELY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA BUT SLOWLY GIVING WAY AND SLIDING EAST AS A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS TRIES TO MOVE EAST AND UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MON AND TUES. ALSO COMPLICATING THIS MATTER...IS A TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AND AS WELL...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND MAKING IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY...CONVECTION WILL BE SUCH THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BY THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIMEFRAME...THE EURO AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA BUT STILL MAINTAINING AND MORE DIURNAL TREND TO EACH DAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE EURO AND GFS DO HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT GOING AHEAD IN THE EXTENDED AND THIS ALSO MADE MAKING A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SUPER BLEND MORE SUITABLE. MAINLY...ANY CHANGES TO THE SUPER BLEND WERE FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...AND WAS TO MAKE POPS A MORE DIURNAL TREND. BASED UPON TRENDS...EVEN ON SATURDAY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SNEAK INTO THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN AND A FEW OTHER LOCATIONS IN EAST KENTUCKY BEFORE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CREEPS CLOSER TO THE AREA...RESULTING IN HIGH CHANCE TO EVEN LIKELY POPS IN THE AREA BY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY. OVERALL...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CAN BE DAYS WHERE SOME LOCATIONS MAY STAY DRY ALL DAY BUT MOVING ON FROM THERE...A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IN SOME RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE TAF SITES SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED. CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE 5 TO 7K FT RANGE IS POSSIBLE ONCE MORE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE STATE. EXPECT TAF SITES WILL REMAIN DRY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ONCE MORE BY TOMORROW EVENING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...JMW

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