Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 280028 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 828 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 828 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ON AS ADVERTISED EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO CAPTURE THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH DID TRY TO SLOW THE DIURNAL DROP OFF SOMEWHAT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AS THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY HINDERING THE RATE OF COOLING. ALSO ADDED A TOUCH OF FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS CLOSER TO DAWN BASED ON WHAT HAD OCCURRED THIS MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION AROUND A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN US COAST. A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE A CLOSED LOW IS ROTATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE BY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING AS IT DEPARTS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SFC HIGH SETTLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHILE THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ROTATE INTO THE MID SOUTH. CORRESPONDING SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALSO DURING THIS TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE DISTURBANCE ROTATING INTO THE APPALACHIANS MAY PROLONG THE CU UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...PENDING HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS THAT ARE NOW OVER EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY DROP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT DURING THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE LOWER 30S. ASSUMING ENOUGH CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN DROP TO NEAR LEVELS OF LAST NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN A FEW VALLEYS THAT HAD HIGHER DEWPOINTS 24 HOURS AGO. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE CLEARING AND ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS STIRRED FOR A WHILE AFTER DARK...WE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST...WITH THIS BEING MAINLY FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS OR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. RIDGING SHOULD DOMINATE INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING FURTHER INTO THE 60S IN MOST PLACES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH. SHOWERS COULD CREEP INTO LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN BORDER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THAT AREA AND ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A SPLIT FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE WORK WEEK TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND. WITHIN THIS SPLIT FLOW REGIME...A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN TX WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION. AS THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY...A SECOND LOW WILL DIVE DOWN FROM CANADA AND PHASE/MERGE WITH THE CLOSED LOW BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG LOW TRACKING FROM KY SLOWLY EWD OFF THE COAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW...WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO KY FOR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN START MID WEEK AS THE LOW SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY REGION EWD TOWARD THE COAST. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...EASTERN KY REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP...POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY....WITH OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW PUSHES OFF THE COAST...WE WILL SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON SUNDAY BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 828 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU AT 6-8K FEET AGL WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS...BEFORE DISSIPATING THROUGH 12Z. A BIT OF IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL OCCUR ALONG SOME OF THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z AS WELL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AT 5KTS OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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