Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 261052 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA. FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN OUT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AROUND 13Z AND TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z. THE TAF GRIDS WERE UPDATED AND A WORK TAF WAS SAVED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...AR

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