Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 240429 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1229 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 BLENDED LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE MADE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 852 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 WINDS HAVE STAYED UP A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED THIS EVENING...SO TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST. THUS...WILL SLOW DOWN THE TEMPERATURE FALL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...FINAL VALUES SHOULD STILL BE OBTAINABLE AFTER THE WINDS DIE OFF THIS EVENING. THUS...NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A CLEAR AND WINDY DAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...ALLOWING FOR A VERY QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES. THINKING THAT TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING ON THE RIDGES AND BELOW FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS. SO HAVE WENT WITH A FREEZE WARNING AREA WIDE TONIGHT. FROST IS LIKELY IS MANY LOCATIONS...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST TOMORROW...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS AND WILL HELP USHER IN WARM MOIST AIR...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO HAVE THIS SHORTWAVE QUITE STRONG WITH A NEGATIVE TILT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND QUITE UNSTABLE AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST A GOOD DEAL OF SHEAR AVAILABLE WILL RAISE A CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS TIME PERIOD IN THE HWO. THIS SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS AND LIKELY TO NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS SEEMS SUFFICIENT FOR THIS EVENT. AFTER THIS...MID LEVEL RIDGING IN A BUSY PATTERN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST REGION WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND EURO DO SEEM TO SPLIT IN SOLUTIONS QUITE A BIT IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. IN FACT...HAD TO LOWER POPS BELOW THE SUPER BLEND VALUES TO GET A REASONABLE MEAN BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. A BLOCKING LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND BRINGS A SURFACE LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS BRINGS THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED WHERE THE EURO KEEPS IN FURTHER SOUTH. DECIDED TO GO BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND LOWER POPS BELOW THE SUPER BLEND SOLUTION. THIS DOES MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING NEIGHBORS AS WELL. OVERALL AND COOL AND WET EXTENDED MAY BE ON TAP BUT THE DIFFERENCE IN THE GFS AND EURO DOES LOWER CONFIDENCE SOME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...HAL/KAS SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...HAL

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