Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 070525 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 125 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1104 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED NEAR THE VA BORDER EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS WORKED NORTH OF JKL AND GENERALLY IS ALIGNED FROM AROUND WILLIAMSBURG TO EAST OF LONDON TO BEATTYVILLE TO CAMPTON TO WEST LIBERTY AND THEN EAST INTO FAR NORTHWEST JOHNSON COUNTY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING VERY LITTLE PERSIST FROM LESLIE AND PERRY COUNTIES NORTHEAST TO FLOYD AND MARTIN COUNTIES. THESE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FINALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE CARRIED IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 4Z OR MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT CURVES WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD AGAIN DOMINATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME VALLEY FOG FORMING IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON LONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER IN LOCATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER...BUT THESE HAVE GENERALLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...AS SUNSET APPROACHES. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SENT OUT AN OUTFLOW INTO THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE NORTH. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THIS CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS IN GENERAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THAT AREA IS MARGINAL AND WILL BE DECREASING. OTHER THAN THAT...SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAIN COOLED AIR IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR REGION FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ON TAP. BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS WITH ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THERE ARE A FEW STORMS THAT HAVE FORMED IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH ARE PRODUCING RAIN AND SOME LIGHTNING. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY HELP INCREASE LL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY JUST BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO DEVELOP UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE ONCE AGAIN. OTHERWISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TODAY AND THURSDAY...AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 60S ON SOME OF THE RIDGES. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. INTO THE WEEKEND...THEY ALL DEPICT A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...AN EMBEDDED AREA OF LOW HEIGHTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND A DECENTLY STRONG TROUGH MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE PLAINS. THE SOUTHEAST LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY TO NOT BE A FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER. THE RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND IS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A CAP SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RULE OUT CONVECTION AT PEAK HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL OPEN UP ENOUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS THAT BITS OF ENERGY WILL BRUSH PAST KENTUCKY JUST TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS WILL FALL INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH HEADS INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF IS STILL STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK THAN THE GFS...BUT THEIR TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE SIMILAR. THE GFS IS NOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH THIS FEATURE THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO LENDING GREATER CONFIDENCE TO THE FORMER/S CONSISTENT SOLUTION. FOR WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH/S PASSING AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION. FOR THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND FOR THE BIG PICTURE WITH A LARGE DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE HOURLY POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING THE CONVECTION LIMITED TO PEAK HEATING AND GENERALLY JUST OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. MODERATE TO LARGE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHILE TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE MIDDLE 80S EACH AFTERNOON. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COMBINE TO GENERATE CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT WHILE ITS ACTUAL MOVEMENT WILL DETERMINING THE BEST CHANCES OF PCPN THAT NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING A COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A PLEASANT CHANGE OF AIR MASS ANTICIPATED RESULTING IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN BETTER THAN YESTERDAY CONCERNING THE POPS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED...BUT WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCING THE DIURNAL CURVE EACH DAY AND GENERALLY GOING LOWER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. DID ALSO MAKE SOME RATHER LARGE CHANGES TO LOWS EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE TERRAIN EFFECTS AND ANTICIPATED STRONG INVERSIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE NIGHT TIME TEMP DIFFERENCES WERE SMALLER AFTER THAT WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND POST FROPA CAA ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. CU WILL AGAIN DEVELOP AROUND 15 TO 16Z...AND SOME ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA IS POSSIBLE BY 18Z. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...EXPECT BEST DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE VA BORDER...WITH RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...JMW

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