Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 182001 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 401 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS COMING TO EASTERN KENTUCKY BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. BASED ON THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM12 MODELS...THE FIRST RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE RAIN WILL THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA...WITH ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY SEEING SOME ACCUMULATING RAINFALL BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...AND INTERACTS WITH THE FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE STORMS COULD BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY...AFTER THE SUN IS UP AND THE FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW WILL REIGN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY...PROVIDING A CONTINUED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EVENING. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WELL INTO THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAKER COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT AND DAMPEN EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE HAS BEEN BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A SLOWER TREND TO THIS WAVE...AND ALSO KEEPING THE SURFACE FEATURES MORE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO HANG ON THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW GIVEN THE SOUTHEAST TREND TO BULK OF THE FORCING AND MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 NOT TOO MUCH WILL BE GOING ON AT THE AIRPORTS UNTIL EARLY TONIGHT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYER OF HIGH CIRRUS...WITH A FEW CUMULUS SCUD DRIFTING PAST BENEATH...WILL BE ALL THERE IS TO SPEAK OFF IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. THE FIRST MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL BETWEEN 6 AND 7Z...WHEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AFTER 11Z...WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COULD WORSEN DRAMATICALLY DURING ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR BRIEF PERIODS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...AR

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