Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 040701 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 301 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING WILL STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE SHORT TERM. PLAN VIEW MODEL OUTPUT IS FINALLY TRYING TO STEER AWAY FROM ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS WOULD MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE STRONG LACK OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL POINTING AT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISL/SCT AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME SLIGHT DECOUPLING OF WINDS. DID NOTE...HOWEVER...THAT OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...THE LATEST NAM12 RUN HAS ACTUALLY MOISTENED UP A BIT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THINK THIS MAY STILL BE A BIT OVERDONE...AND NEAR SURFACE DRY LAYER SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY PRECIP THREAT. OTHERWISE... LIGHT SRLY FLOW AND GOOD SUN COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. EXPECT GENERALLY LOW 80S BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR HIGHS...WHILE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LARGE RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS IN TEMPERATURE. THIS COULD MEAN SOME SIZABLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES FOR VALLEYS BETWEEN MORNING LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS NOW SEEM LESS CERTAIN WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FACT MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER AGGRESSIVE ON SURFACE MOISTURE...TENDS TO SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WILL STAY CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE FOR DEW POINTS AS THEY HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON SURFACE MOISTURE LATELY...ALTHOUGH EVEN TODAY THEY WERE A BIT HIGH. THESE LOWER DEW POINTS TODAY REALLY CONFIRMS IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO GET MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ANY RAINFALL THIS UPCOMING WEEK. NOT ONLY DO WE HAVE MOISTURE CONCERNS...BUT WE ALSO HAVE SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CAPPING TO ALSO OVERCOME...SO THE PIECES JUST DON`T FIT TOGETHER FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NOT MUCH CHANGING ON THAT FRONT EITHER. LOOK FOR LOWER 80S EACH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES SETTLING INTO THE MID 50S AT NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S EACH NIGHT. THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT NIGHT THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCLUDED MENTION OF SOME DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT AND SLIGHT DECOUPLING OF WINDS...BUT TAF SITES SHOULD STILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS. CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND WINDS WILL DIE OUT ONCE MORE BY TOMORROW EVENING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JMW

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