Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 021754 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 154 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 BLENDED OBS INTO THE FORECAST...WITHOUT ANY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1121 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 BLENDED MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST AND UPDATED SKY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 807 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ALSO...A SHORT WAVE THROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA... SPREADING MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. THESE SHOULD THIN OUT THROUGH THE MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS...TO AROUND 50 ON THE RIDGETOPS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS NOTED UNDER THE VEIL OF THINNING HIGH CLOUDS TRYING TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHES OF HIGHER BASED STRATOCU. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS RECOVERING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPIRALING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY ESTABLISHED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WILL DAMPEN AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRAVELS EAST ALONG THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOW 70S. THE COOLER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW 40S ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SHOULD BE A BIT WIDER STILL...AS RIDGETOPS STAY CLOSER TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ENGAGES ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH A FEW SPOTS TOPPING THE 80 DEGREE MARK. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AN OVERALL QUIET STRETCH OF TIME IS IN STORE. GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO GENERATE A BIT OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES IN A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP. LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK AND MID-UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S BY MID AND LATE WEEK...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS SUB-20 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AND ENOUGH MOISTURE RECOVERY MAY OCCUR THROUGH AIR MASS MODIFICATION SO THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 FOG WILL BRING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN VALLEYS NEAR LARGE STREAMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOCALIZED VLIFR TOWARD DAWN. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 9 AM. OTHERWISE...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...HAL

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