Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 051929 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TOMORROW. BUT IF TODAY IS ANY INDICATION...SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE SUBDUED...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...TO BE CONSISTENT...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STORMS IN THE GRIDS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS REACHING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE TODAYS PEAK TEMPERATURES. DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR 60 ON THE RIDGES...WITH SIMILAR LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE DOMINATING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NATION WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE ALSO IS AN UNDERCUTTING WEAKNESS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE NATION AT MID LEVELS THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME INTERESTING WX THERE BY THE WEEKEND. THE DIRTY RIDGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAP ALL CONVECTION THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY AT PEAK HEATING EACH AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE RATHER LOW. BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH ROGUE BITS OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND RUNNING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIP INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND THE MIDWEST LATER MONDAY WITH HEIGHT FALLS IMPACTING KENTUCKY WHILE ADDITIONAL ENERGY TRACKS OVER THE AREA. THE TROUGH DOES MOVE MORE COMPLETELY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS PROGGED...BY THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR...TO AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY EVENING. A GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS ACCEPTED FOR THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE AGREEMENT EARLY ON AND AS A MEANS OF MITIGATING THE UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. DID SIDE MORE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF FOR POPS EACH PERIOD. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN EARLY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE AND A WEAK SFC HIGH. THERE WILL BE NO DRIVING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND ASIDE FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MINOR TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. ACCORDINGLY...WITH RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE BENEATH THE SFC HIGH...WILL KEEP ANY SMALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND ONLY AT OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. EACH NIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FOLLOWING THE AFTERNOON/S DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU DEVELOPMENT WITH MILD RIDGE TOP TEMPERATURES AND COOLER VALLEYS. IN FACT...A MODERATE TO LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT IN THE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT IN THIS PATTERN...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THE MID LEVEL ENERGY AND A SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. MONDAY WILL ALSO SEE A POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND ITS COLD FRONT CROSSES KENTUCKY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND BETTER PCPN CHANCES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS THAN WE WILL SEE FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN ON THE WET SIDE FOR MOST PERIODS SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS DOWN BASED MORE ON THE ECMWF AND THE DIURNAL CYCLE THROUGH MONDAY. DID ALSO MAKE SOME RATHER LARGE CHANGES TO LOWS EACH NIGHT GIVEN THE TERRAIN AND ANTICIPATED STRONG INVERSIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE A MORE MIXED AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCLUDED DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH SKIES CLEARING DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BELOW 5 KTS. WHILE AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT TAF SITES TO BE AFFECTED. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...JVM/JMW

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