Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 050633 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 233 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE SHORT TERM. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL POINTING AT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISL/SCT AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST MOISTURE LIKELY DIRECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE SE. DESPITE MODELS TRYING TO PUT PRECIP BACK IN ACROSS THIS SAME AREA ON WEDNESDAY...STILL BELIEVE DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL WIN OUT AND SO KEPT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SRLY FLOW AND GOOD SUN COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LOW TO MID 80S BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR HIGHS...WHILE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LARGE RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS IN TEMPERATURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SIZABLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES FOR VALLEYS BETWEEN MORNING LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL WORK WEEK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE FEATURE INLAND...WHICH WOULD HELP WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND PERHAPS ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THE LOW OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD HELP KEEP A CAP ON ANY SHOWERS THAT TRY TO FORM UNDER THE RIDGE. SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS ON THURSDAY WHERE THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UL TROUGH PUSHES EWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCLUDED MENTION OF SOME DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS COMING AFTERNOON AGAIN...FADING OUT BY THE EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BELOW 5KTS. WHILE AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT TAF SITES TO BE AFFECTED. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...JMW

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