Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 030611 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 211 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1136 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THE ONE EXCEPTION HERE IS A DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS SKIRTING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IN ADDITION TO HOW DRY IT GOT TODAY...WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE LESSENED IT FROM AREAS TO PATCHY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS FOR CURRENT OBS. WITH THESE CHANGES...HAVE SENT OUT A NEW ZFP AND SENT OUT THE FRESHENED GRIDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN KY AND TN. UNDER THIS DOME...SOME AFTERNOON CU DID DEVELOP BUT HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. AS WELL...SOME MIXING UP TO 8 KFT TODAY DID A NUMBER ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND RECOVERY TONIGHT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR MORE THAN USUAL FOG DEVELOPMENT. THAT APPEARS TO BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME DEEP RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. UPDATED TEMPS AND DEW POINT ALONG WITH THE MOST CURRENT CONDITIONS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH A NEW ZFP NOT NEEDED AT THIS POINT.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER KY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LEAVES A NONDESCRIPT PATTERN ALOFT WITH THE WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL PARCEL TRAJECTORIES WILL NOT ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF...AND THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BRING SIZABLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEYS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RESIDING OVER THE REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL ACROSS THE AREA WITHOUT THE REAL HIGH HUMIDITY. HIGHS IN THE 80S APPEAR LIKELY EACH DAY. WHILE JUST ABOUT EVERYONE SHOULD STAY DRY THIS WEEK...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD POP EACH AFTERNOON...STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BREAKS DOWN SLIGHTLY AND WE GET SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND HARDLY WORTH THE MENTION AT THIS POINT. BEST CHANCES FOR ANYTHING TO POP WOULD BE ON THE HIGH TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN BETTER NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS IS JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. WE SHOULD SEE VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING AS YOU WOULD EXPECT UNDER THE HIGH. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...BESIDES SOME PATCHY IFR OR WORSE FOG EXPECTED THROUGH 13Z. THIS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW AND RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE AREA...STEERING CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGHER BASED STRATOCU WILL BE SEEN ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 6 TO 8K FEET AGL RANGE. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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