Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 031503 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1103 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 UPDATED AGAIN TO BLEND MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER THROUGH 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. ALSO REMOVED FOG MENTION...AS THIS HAS BEEN A LOT MORE RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALOFT...FLATTENING FLOW IS ON TAP...WITH MODEST RIDGING CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS TEXAS...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SKIRTING THE U.S./CANTON BORDER...WITH SOME EMBEDDED WEAKER SHORT WAVES WOBBLING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR THE EASTERN KENTUCKY VALLEYS...WITH LOW TO MID 40S CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MOST RIDGETOPS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...AS RIDGING WILL MOVE IN ALOFT...ALLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST...SETTLING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WARMTH...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AT NEAR 80 TODAY...AND LOW 80S ON MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...TO THE MID 50S ON THE RIDGETOPS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION AND POINTS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADDITION TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AS SUCH...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNDER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH MID 80S LIKELY BY MID AND LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MOISTURE INFLUX. THIS WILL KEEP RH LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW COMPARATIVELY. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS...AS HAS BEEN PROJECTED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IS THAT AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT AND SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED POP DEVELOPMENT. IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE FAR SE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER COVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS ARE STILL NOT SUPPORTING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANYTHING OF CONCERN OR OF HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS SUCH...KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VERY LOW QPF VALUES. WE SHOULD SEE VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING AS YOU WOULD EXPECT UNDER THE HIGH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...BESIDES SOME PATCHY IFR OR WORSE FOG EXPECTED BETWEEN 06 AND 13Z. THIS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW AND RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE AREA...STEERING CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGHER BASED STRATOCU WILL BE SEEN ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 6 TO 8K FEET AGL RANGE. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AT 5 KTS OR LESS...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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