Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 010817 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 417 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE IS DESCENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS IS ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR ON LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE CWA...GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 45 DEGREES WITH THE DEWPOINTS SIMILAR. THANKS TO THE EARLIER SHOWERS...AND SOME ONGOING LIGHT ONES...PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE FORMED OVER THE AREA. ON SATELLITE...CLEAR SKIES ARE FOUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER CLOUDS EXIST IN THE EAST...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE OPENING CLOSED LOW DEPARTING THE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE...BUT ALSO TRAILING A BAND OF ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE HEIGHT RISES PAUSE. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE AREA WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER DETAILS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE... DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA WHILE A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WITH MARGINAL CAPE AND LIS POTENTIALLY TO -2 THIS AFTERNOON A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT RULE BE RULED OUT...BUT WILL LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST IN LIEU OF THE MORE LIKELY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AMIDST PARTIAL CLEARING AT BEST. A WARMER DAY IS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY... AS THE HIGH WEAKENS...HOWEVER...A STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE ENERGY PASSING BY ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SPRINKLES IN THE WX GRIDS FOR THIS WITH RELATIVELY LOW POPS. FOR TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/WINDS AGAIN HAVE STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND AFTER THAT. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON TERRAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT TOO MUCH GIVEN THE HIGH/S POSITION TO THE WEST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP GENERALLY ABOVE MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MAV NUMBERS MOST SIMILAR TODAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 BY 0Z SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING EASTERN KY AND BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL ENSUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION AND SOUTHWARD...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF CANADA. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS EFFECTIVELY BLOCK THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW FROM MOVING EASTWARD...THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ELONGATED IN A NEARLY WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION JUST NORTH OF KY...AND REMAIN STATIONARY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCATED RIGHT ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND STAY WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MEAN INCREASING TEMPERATURE TRENDS INTO MIDWEEK AS WELL. THAT BEING SAID...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...COULD BE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME SCATTERED POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY...AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL. THE GFS SEEMS TO LATCH ONTO THIS IDEA MORE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EXPECT MODELS TO BEGIN LINING UP BETTER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REGARDLESS...BOTH AGREE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST...AS WELL AS THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST AS WELL. WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION...THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY YET AGAIN FOR SOME POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLING IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY RISE ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK BOTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A STRONG PULL IN MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...PULLING DIRECTLY NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...EXPECT OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LIKELY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 THOUGH A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL DRIFTING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY...MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE EARLIER RAINS ARE LEADING TO PATCHY FOG THAT CAN BE BRIEFLY DENSE AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY VFR ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO TO HANDLE THE INTERMITTENT TIME OF IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES THROUGH DAWN. THE TAFS IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO 5K FT AND VIS RESTRICTIONS CLEARED...VFR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GREIF

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.