Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 170732 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 332 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVING INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MI IS POISED TO SLOWLY CREEP SOUTHEAST. IN THIS AREA OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...A BIT OF CLEARING MAY MAKE IT INTO EAST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE AREA MAY RESULT IN SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS DAWN. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A TOUGH CALL WITH CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE PUT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS BUT WILL ALSO MONITOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS DAWN. IN ADDITION TO THIS...A WEAK REMNANT TROUGH SLIDING EAST AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR DO HINT AT THIS INTO THE DAY AS THIS TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH. WITH NO REAL SURFACE FEATURE THIS ACTIVITY IS TIED TO...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDDAY AND ONLY SHOWERS EXPECTED. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WHERE SOME CLEAR SKIES LOOK TO DEVELOP. THIS MAY POSE AS A BETTER FOG SET UP AND MAY NEED TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. BY SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LOW...CROSSING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOIST AIR INTO EAST KENTUCKY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAKING MAKING IT INTO POINTS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT AND THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPWILL BE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WELL AS A FEW SHOWERS. THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. THE NORTHERN TAF SITES MAY SEE A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER HERE AND THERE. TOWARD DAWN...SOME IFR CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL SHUNT THIS LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO THE EAST TOWARDS MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OR CIRRUS EXPECTED. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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