Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 170207 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1007 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1004 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 PRECIP HAS DIED OUT OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA FOR THE TIME BEING. THERE WERE SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM WESTERN KY TO SOUTHWESTERN OH. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER EASTERN KY A LITTLE BEFORE DAWN. HAVE USED 20-30 PERCENT POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MODELS ALSO SHOW A SMALL RESURGENCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AFTER SOME DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. IF IT OCCURS...THINK THE ACTIVITY WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT THAT THE CONVECTIVE CURRENTS WOULD BE RISING INTO. WITHOUT A STRONG FOCUS/FORCING MECHANISM...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT COULD BE THE DEMISE OF WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE MORE PLENTIFUL ACTIVITY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 UPDATED POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE TIME FRAME FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL BEING A BIT OFF WITH ITS HANDLING OF TODAYS CONVECTION...THE NAM12 WAS MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY...IF THAT...WILL BE LEFT OVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY ALSO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND STRONG LIFT...IT APPEARS THAT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPARSE. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THERE SHOULD BE LULL IN THE ACTION FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAXING OUT IN THE 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AREA WIDE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 MAIN CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS FOCUSED ON A CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO PUSH SLOWLY EWD EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE ITS ENERGY GETS INGESTED AND HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER UNTIL THE CLOSED LOW ENERGY PHASES WITH IT AND MOVES EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SFC LOW IS FORECASTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE PLAINS AND AHEAD OF IT...A STRONG SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. PW VALUES UP TO 1.4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE....WHICH ARE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH OUT OF KY BY MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...A LOW THAT IS NOW CUT OFF IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL UNDULATE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PIECES OF ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND IT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULDN/T CAUSE ANY ISSUES FOR KENTUCKY AS THE ENERGY APPEARS TO STAY FURTHER NORTH UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN THE LOW STARTS SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THE SFC...SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN CHANCES FOR PRECIP BEGIN INCREASING. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHERE AT LEAST AN INCH OF LIQUID IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AND PLENTY OF SFC/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THINGS WILL DRY OUT AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL GET A REPRIEVE FROM PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL IF NOT RIGHT AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 MOST OF THE SHOWERS WHICH AFFECTED THE REGION DURING THE DAY HAD DIMINISHED OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND CONDITIONS WERE MAINLY VFR. THIS SHOULD LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...A GENERAL DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOST PLACES WILL FALL TO MVFR...AND PERHAPS SOME IFR FOR A TIME. CONFIDENCE IN THE RATE OF DETERIORATION IS NOT HIGH...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS FOR A DECLINE AROUND 09Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...BUT THE PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN TIME/PLACE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MORE THAN VCSH IN TAFS. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY VFR RETURNING AROUND 19Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...HAL

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