Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 161607 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1207 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1206 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE REQUIRED TODAY. UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT TO REMOVE ANY MORNING WORDING. ALSO UPDATED THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY TO REFLECT THE TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE QPF AND WEATHER TYPE GRIDS WERE ALSO UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW POP FORECAST. THE OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST WERE IN GOOD ENOUGH SHAPE TO WARRANT NOT CHANGING ANYTHING ELSE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BLOSSOMING NOW IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. FORECAST GENERALLY HAD THIS COVERED WELL...BUT DID TWEAK TIMING AND INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON LATEST RADAR/LIGHTNING TRENDS. LATEST NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A SEPARATE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE TWO WAVES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THE EXPECTATION FOR NUMEROUS MORNING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF LULL AND THEN ANOTHER UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY FOUND OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...SO NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER... THE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED BY ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A CONCERN DUE TO SATURATED GROUND. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE BETTER FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND BRING DRIER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM. SOME SUNSHINE WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS ON FRIDAY WELL INTO THE 70S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN A SPLIT FLOW TO START THE EXTENDED WITH MAIN CONCERNS CENTERED AROUND A CLOSED LOW WHICH IS IN THE PROCESS OF CREEPING EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...ALONG THE NORTHERN JET STREAM...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OPENS AND EJECTS TO THE EAST...THESE TWO FEATURES BEGIN TO PHASE...DEEPENING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST. CLOSER TO EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WEAK DISTURBANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE MENTIONED DEEPENING TROUGH DEVELOPS...A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND A STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. PWATS WITH THIS LOOK TO BE NEAR 1.40 INCHES IN MOST EAST KENTUCKY LOCATIONS WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY THROUGH SUNDAY. CONCERNING THIS...THE GFS AND EURO HAVE HAD GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND CONSISTENCY AS WELL. IN FACT...MOS DATA HAS BEEN ADVERTISING CAT POPS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORS AND WHAT THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN...HAVE GONE ABOVE WHAT THE SUPER BLEND HAS DISPLAYED FOR EAST KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THIS EVENT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURGE IN MOISTURE WITH THIS WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THIS ADIABATIC PROCESS. BESIDE THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND POSSIBLE FLOOD SCENARIO...THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ADVERTISING IS CONCERNING. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR HERE IS THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP AND LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY. NEVERTHELESS...WILL GO WITH CAT POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY POPS THROUGH MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS TIME FRAME WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING AND MAY NEED TO HIGHLIGHT A SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH THIS ELEMENT IS STILL VAGUE DUE TO THE TIMING...LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY...AND TIMING WITH THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARRIVING LATE IN THE PERIOD. CONTINUED PRECIP WILL LAST INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND RARE QUIET WEATHER WILL ARRIVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CAUSING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE STORMS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS FOLLOWED BY A BREIF LULL. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. STILL UNSURE HOW WIDESPREAD THIS SECOND ROUND WILL BECOME SO JUST KEPT WITH A VCTS MENTION FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR RIGHT NOW. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A LOWERING CLOUD DECK BACK DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AFTER 08Z OR SO. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...ABE

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