Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 161906 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 306 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL BEING A BIT OFF WITH ITS HANDLING OF TODAYS CONVECTION...THE NAM12 WAS MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY...IF THAT...WILL BE LEFT OVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY ALSO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND STRONG LIFT...IT APPEARS THAT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPARSE. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THERE SHOULD BE LULL IN THE ACTION FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAXING OUT IN THE 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AREA WIDE. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN A SPLIT FLOW TO START THE EXTENDED WITH MAIN CONCERNS CENTERED AROUND A CLOSED LOW WHICH IS IN THE PROCESS OF CREEPING EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...ALONG THE NORTHERN JET STREAM...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OPENS AND EJECTS TO THE EAST...THESE TWO FEATURES BEGIN TO PHASE...DEEPENING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST. CLOSER TO EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WEAK DISTURBANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE MENTIONED DEEPENING TROUGH DEVELOPS...A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND A STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. PWATS WITH THIS LOOK TO BE NEAR 1.40 INCHES IN MOST EAST KENTUCKY LOCATIONS WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY THROUGH SUNDAY. CONCERNING THIS...THE GFS AND EURO HAVE HAD GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND CONSISTENCY AS WELL. IN FACT...MOS DATA HAS BEEN ADVERTISING CAT POPS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORS AND WHAT THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN...HAVE GONE ABOVE WHAT THE SUPER BLEND HAS DISPLAYED FOR EAST KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THIS EVENT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURGE IN MOISTURE WITH THIS WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THIS ADIABATIC PROCESS. BESIDE THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND POSSIBLE FLOOD SCENARIO...THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ADVERTISING IS CONCERNING. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR HERE IS THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP AND LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY. NEVERTHELESS...WILL GO WITH CAT POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY POPS THROUGH MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS TIME FRAME WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING AND MAY NEED TO HIGHLIGHT A SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH THIS ELEMENT IS STILL VAGUE DUE TO THE TIMING...LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY...AND TIMING WITH THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARRIVING LATE IN THE PERIOD. CONTINUED PRECIP WILL LAST INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND RARE QUIET WEATHER WILL ARRIVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE OVERALL TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS BEEN FOR THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE. THAT BEING SAID...IT LOOKS THERE WILL BE A MUCH SMALLER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DIRECTLY AFFECTING ANY OF THE TAF SITES THAN BEFORE. WHERE RAIN DOES OCCUR...PARTICULARLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS...A TAF SITE MAY EXPERIENCE BREIF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE MORE INTENSE RAIN SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE ARE BY AROUND 2Z THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT...AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PASSES BY THE AREA. ANOTHER BATCH OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON TAP FOR TOMORROW...AS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD LULL IN THE RAIN BETWEEN ROUGHLY 2 AND 12Z...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE ACTIVITY AT 12 OR 13Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...AR

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