Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 190227 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1027 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 BUMPED POPS DOWN JUST A TAD CONSIDERING HOW QUICKLY SHOWERS IN TN ARE DISSIPATING. ONLY OTHER UPDATE NEEDED WAS ALIGNING T AND TD GRIDS WITH MOST RECENT OBS. SEND UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP AND MOVED INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING BUT HAVE NOT SEEN ANY MEASURABLE REPORTS OUT OF THESE SHOWERS. POP GRIDS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK FORECAST WISE AS THEY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES THERE. OTHERWISE...DID A DATA LOAD AND BLEND TO UPDATED GRIDS WITH MOST RECENT OBS AND UPDATED TEMPS AND WINDS USING BCCONSHORT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS COMING TO EASTERN KENTUCKY BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. BASED ON THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM12 MODELS...THE FIRST RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE RAIN WILL THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA...WITH ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY SEEING SOME ACCUMULATING RAINFALL BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...AND INTERACTS WITH THE FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE STORMS COULD BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY...AFTER THE SUN IS UP AND THE FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW WILL REIGN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY...PROVIDING A CONTINUED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EVENING. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WELL INTO THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAKER COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT AND DAMPEN EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE HAS BEEN BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A SLOWER TREND TO THIS WAVE...AND ALSO KEEPING THE SURFACE FEATURES MORE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO HANG ON THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW GIVEN THE SOUTHEAST TREND TO BULK OF THE FORCING AND MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 833 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 DRY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE TN BORDER...SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 13Z. THE RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE DETERIORATION SHOULD ARRIVE FIRST AT WESTERN LOCATIONS...WITH EASTERN LOCATIONS HOLDING OFF LONGER DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN TO OUR SE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SPORADIC/SPOTTIER IN NATURE FROM SW TO NE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE FOR SOME PLACES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...HAL

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