Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 041816 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 216 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 FORECAST WAS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE. BLENDED MID DAY OBS INTO THE FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 HAVE REDUCED SKY COVER A BIT FOR TODAY. IT IS A CLEAR START...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY. OTHER CHANGES MADE WERE OF LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR THIS MORNING UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE REGIME. BIGGEST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AS RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS SUBSIDE AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY CLIMB TO 70 BY NOON. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS AS WELL AS THE ZONE FORECAST...AS WHAT IS LEFT OUT THERE SHOULD BE BURNING OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS /THOUGH STILL LIGHT/ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED DAYTIME CU...WITH OTHERWISE VERY QUIET CONDITIONS. THAT BEING SAID...NO OTHER MAJOR UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING WILL STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE SHORT TERM. PLAN VIEW MODEL OUTPUT IS FINALLY TRYING TO STEER AWAY FROM ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS WOULD MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE STRONG LACK OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL POINTING AT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISL/SCT AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME SLIGHT MIXING DOWN OF WINDS /STILL GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS/. DID NOTE...HOWEVER...THAT OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...THE LATEST NAM12 RUN HAS ACTUALLY MOISTENED UP A BIT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THINK THIS MAY STILL BE A BIT OVERDONE...AND NEAR SURFACE DRY LAYER SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY PRECIP THREAT. OTHERWISE... LIGHT SRLY FLOW AND GOOD SUN COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. EXPECT GENERALLY LOW 80S BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR HIGHS...WHILE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LARGE RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS IN TEMPERATURE. THIS COULD MEAN SOME SIZABLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES FOR VALLEYS BETWEEN MORNING LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING A BIT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY REGARDING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL LOW THAT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THIS FEATURE INLAND...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN TERRAIN COUNTIES. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW OFFSHORE...WHICH WOULD LIKELY KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION BESIDES PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP THE RAIN MENTION OUT UNTIL SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE LOWS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER SHELTERED VALLEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THEN LOW TO MID 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING IFR. HOWEVER...NO TAF SITES SHOULD BE AFFECTED. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND AT MID DAY TUESDAY...AND NEAR CALM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...HAL

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