Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 270535 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 135 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES NEEDED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 811 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AS THEY SLIP SOUTHWARD...LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. FORECAST TEMPS LOOK GOOD. WILL JUST MASSAGE THE LATEST HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND BLEND INTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE SKY COVER FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. DRIER HAS ADVECTED IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT DEWPOINTS THERE HAVE NOT FALLEN BELOW THE MID 30S. AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE REGION WAS UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS OR SO AND THEN BEGINS TO PUSH EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LOW DURING THAT TIME. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. BEHIND THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HEIGHTS ARE SHOULD RISE LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION... ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. PENDING ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA...DEWPOINTS IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDEST VALLEY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY MIGHT FALL FAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY FROST TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS LOW AS DEWPOINTS MAY END UP A TAD HIGH FOR THIS. NONETHELESS...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. THE DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU AND CU WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON MONDAY. THE CU SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW DUE TO CAPPING BELOW 700 MB. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. THE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND ASSUMING CLEARING SKIES...PATCHY FROST WOULD APPEAR A BIT MORE PROBABLE THAN TONIGHT FOR THE DEEPER OR NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS. CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ADVECT IN DRY ENOUGH AIR BY THAT POINT...DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR THE PATCHY VALLEY FROST THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE HWO. AGAIN...CHANCES APPEAR A BIT HIGHER FOR THIS WITH POSSIBLY MORE COVERAGE ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY PATCHY VALLEY FROST TONIGHT...IF AT ALL...VERY ISOLATED. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK APPEARS RELATIVE COOL AND UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES SLOWLY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL GET AS THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST...SO POPS PEAK IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW WITH BEST CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY BY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...BUT CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5KFT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...AR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.