Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 260700 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA. FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION... ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR 22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN... THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...AR

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