Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 010742 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 342 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TODAY. MOISTURE WILL NOT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL LATER...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS AND PROMOTE LOW LEVEL MIXING TODAY. WILL EXPECT RH TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS AND 20S. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...WINDS WILL NOT BE A CONCERN FOR FIRE WX...BUT THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE RISK. TONIGHT WILL START OUT CLEAR. WITHOUT MUCH WIND INITIALLY... VALLEYS SHOULD DECOUPLE FROM THE FLOW ALOFT AND COOL OFF RAPIDLY. MEANWHILE...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP RIDGES MILDER. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BRING THE ARRIVAL OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TOWARD DAWN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT THE SAME TIME...AND COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE POP WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE WAVE PASSES...AND LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS KENTUCKY AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY FROM SW TO NE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION TRACKS THE LOWS FURTHER WEST...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST INTO OUR AREA WITH THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. THAT BEING SAID...WE CAN STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT AND S/WV TROF PUSHES EWD OUT OF KENTUCKY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM MOIST AIR IN PLACE...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM A STRONG 120KT JET...AND PLENTY OF LIFT FROM THE SURFACE FRONT...CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES PER LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. BUT THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS/FRONTAL PRECIP ON FRIDAY. PW VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AN INCH...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE...SO WHATEVER STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD BE HIGH RAIN PRODUCERS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION FAIRLY QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...PULLING IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THIS WILL HELP STABILIZE THE AIR...QUICKLY CUTTING OFF ANY FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND PRECIP. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY LINGERING THUNDER TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SATURDAY SO HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER A DROP IN TEMPS FROM THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY...EXPECT THEM TO SLOWLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THIS ZONAL FLOW AS WE HEAD FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IF THIS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE...COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JVM/JMW AVIATION...HAL

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