Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 020643 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 243 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1054 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY...HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES REIGN OVER THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING. UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE DROP IN TEMPS. STILL...AT THIS POINT...PATCHY FOG IS A CONCERN BUT NOTHING HEADLINE WORTHY AT THIS POINT. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE NEEDED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 818 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. IT APPEARS LATER TONIGHT WE WILL BE CLEAR FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO DROP...DRASTICALLY IN SOME LOCATIONS...SUCH AS THE FAR EASTERN DEEPER VALLEYS...AND PERHAPS AS WELL SOME OF THE VALLEYS IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE INTERESTING SITUATION HERE THOUGH IS THAT DESPITE THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS IS APPEARING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT HI RES MODEL RUNS SUGGEST CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND PLUNGING TEMPS WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AND AS SUCH HAVE DROPPED THE DEEPER VALLEY TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND KEPT THE PATCHY FOG IN ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...THINKING COVERAGE AND RESIDENCE TIME WILL NOT SUGGEST ANY HEADLINE IS NEEDED TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 40S...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW 30S SHOWING UP. THIS WILL ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A BIT MILDER CONDITIONS AS SUNSHINE RETURNS IN FULL FORCE...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 AN OVERALL QUIET STRETCH OF TIME IS IN STORE. GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO GENERATE A BIT OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES IN A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP. LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK AND MID-UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS SUB-20 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AND ENOUGH MOISTURE RECOVERY MAY OCCUR THROUGH AIR MASS MODIFICATION SO THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE SEEN FROM 08 TO 12Z ACROSS MOST OF THE VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z. FEW TO SCATTERED 6K FEET AGL STRATOCU WILL ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE BURNING OFF BY EARLY IN THE EVENING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.